How does Quebec influence Canada’s geopolitical dynamics?

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This is the script for my video posted on May 11, 2026. Watch it on TikTok.

In many ways, there are two Canadas, and they interact with the world in very different ways. There’s the Canada led out of Ottawa, the one most people are familiar with, and then there’s Quebec, which has 35 government offices in 20 countries, signs international treaties on its own, and has a population roughly the same size as Belarus or Switzerland. So just how different is Quebec from the rest of Canada, and what impact does this have on the country’s geopolitical dynamics?

Quebec is best understood not as a cultural minority inside Canada but as a quasi-state in its own right hosted within the Canadian federal structure. We can trace this dynamic back to the mid to late 18th century when France was defeated in several battles against the British and ultimately transferred the colony of New France to Britain, putting about 70000 French-speaking Catholics under English Protestant rule. In 1774, the Quebec Act formally preserved the presence of French civil law, the Catholic church, and the semi-feudal seigneurial system used to distribute land.

From that point onward, the Catholic church performed quasi-state functions in Quebec, running hospitals and schools and social services independent of government oversight. The religious and language differences alone kept the anglophone and francophone populations from fully integrating. Then during WWI, the political factions of each side fought over the fact that fewer than 5% of conscripts were French Canadian despite comprising 28% of the country’s population.

Prime Minister Robert Borden imposed conscription via the Military Service Act, and the election of December 1917 was dominated by this issue. The Conservatives under Borden won English Canada, and the Liberals under French-Canadian leadership won Quebec. By the spring of 1918, riots erupted in Quebec City, with Canadian troops firing on French-Canadian crowds, destroying Conservative Party support in Quebec for decades.

The government promised not to conscript forces for overseas wars until WWII, and when they issued a plebiscite asking the Canadian people to release the government from its promise, 71% of Quebec voted no, while 64% voted yes nationally. Every Canadian government since has known that for Quebecois to be conscripted for overseas combat commitments, they need to be UN-sanctioned, clearly self-defensive, or limited in scope and bound to a specific timeframe, because ultimately Quebec is highly wary of military adventurism.

In 1960, the Liberal Party under Jean Lesage ran on the slogan “maitres chez nous,” or masters in our own house. The functions of the Catholic church were transferred to the secular Quebec government, and Quebec began opening its own foreign offices in places like Paris and London. This period was called the Quiet Revolution, and the most important part of it was the foreign policy doctrine established under Quebec Vice-Premier Paul Gerin-Lajoie, which asserts that Quebec has the right to extend its internal constitutional jurisdictions abroad. In other words, in areas where the Canadian constitution gives provinces jurisdiction, like education, health, culture, and civil law, Quebec can negotiate and sign international agreements directly.

Quebec has had many close calls when it comes to independence. In the October Crisis of 1970, the Front du liberation du Quebec, or FLQ, kidnapped British trade commissioner James Cross and provincial labor minister Pierre Laporte in Montreal in pursuit of Quebecois nationalist goals, which caused Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau to invoke the War Measures Act for the first time in Canadian history during peacetime. Laporte was ultimately killed. In 1982, the Canadian government patriated the new constitution without Quebec’s signature, and to this day Quebec has not signed the constitution. Then in 1995, a formal independence referendum failed by only about 54000 votes out of 4.7m.

All of this translates into a Quebec that is often at odds with the federal government’s interests. Quebec feels isolated and unique, and today it has several key differences with the rest of the country. It supports social democracy more heavily, is skeptical of alignment with the US and the UK, is more climate-forward, and is heavily protectionist when it comes to culture and language. And because of it wields nearly 80 of the 343 seats in Canada’s House of Commons, action often can’t be taken without Quebec’s support, giving it a sort of structural veto.

These internal political differences also produce massive differences in foreign policy. Quebec consistently opposes overseas combat missions of any kind, and it was decisive in keeping Canada out of Iraq in 2003 and was the most opposed region throughout the war in Afghanistan. Interestingly though, Quebec is a participating government in the International Francophone Organization, or OIF, alongside its own federal government. Without Quebec, Canada’s reach into Francophone West Africa would be vastly weaker. This is the Gerin-Lajoie doctrine in action. Still, even amid US threats to Canada and NATO, Quebec continues to trail on support for defense spending. Quebec also relies heavily on its aerospace and electric vehicle industries, which has made it a moderating force in Canada’s relations with China because it needs access to China’s critical minerals and supply chains.

Interestingly, Quebec has been the climate-forward anchor inside Canadian foreign policy, in part because Hydro-Quebec is one of the world’s largest hydropower producers. The province has repeatedly disrupted efforts to build new oil and gas pipelines like Energy East, and this has kept the country more reliant on exporting to US refineries.

Despite all of this, when the current US administration began calling Canada the 51st state and enacted heavy tariffs on Canadian goods, Quebec saw the largest jump in Canadian pride across any of the country’s provinces. About 58% of Quebecois stated they are proud to be Canadian, and 45% said they have a deep emotional attachment to Canada. The impact has actually been a collapse in support for Quebec sovereignty, and though this dynamic could reverse as US threats diminish, the broader fact is that without the rest of Canada, Quebec would be a francophone island surrounded by Protestant, English-speaking, common law practicing foreigners. The people of Quebec, while still wary of their fellow Canadian citizens, believe for now that they are better off Canadian.

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