This is the script for my video posted on June 11, 2026. Watch it on TikTok.
For about 60 years, Tanzania was one of the most stable and peaceful African countries. But since late 2025, a wave of state violence against protesters has upended the established order. Meanwhile, Tanzania occupies a unique geopolitical position as the ocean gateway for six landlocked states, the terminus of a 1.4b dollar Chinese railway, and the export point for massive oil and gas projects. So why is Tanzania experiencing such dangerous upheaval, and how might this affect its role in geopolitics?
With about 72m people occupying a land area roughly twice the size of California, Tanzania is actually the single most populous country located entirely south of the equator. Like most African regions it was colonized by a European power in the late 19th century, specifically as a part of German East Africa. Zanzibar, which is now a semi-autonomous region of Tanzania, was controlled by the Sultan of Oman until it became a British protectorate in 1890. After WWI, the region became a British mandate as well before eventually gaining independence in 1961 under the anti-colonial revolutionary Julius Nyerere, though the country was known as Tanganyika then. Three years later, revolutionaries in Zanzibar overthrew the sultan and officially joined Tanganyika, which changed its name to Tanzania. Ever since, the dynamic between Zanzibar and its own country has been tenuous at best, but more on this later.
In 1967, President Nyerere launched a national policy called ujamaa, or familyhood. This was a socialist doctrine, and its centerpiece was the concept of villagization, where people were resettled into villages in the belief that the country would see economic value from reorganizing. In 1973, villagization became compulsory, with 5-6m peasants resettling into about 8000 villages. But the effort failed economically. Agricultural output collapsed, and by 1985 Tanzania was bankrupt and reliant on international aid. Still, it had high literacy rates and social cohesion, and Nyerere served as the moral leader for African liberation movements across the continent.
In 1978, Idi Amin, the dictator of neighboring Uganda, ordered the annexation of the Kagera Salient, a 720 square mile span of land between the two countries’ official border and the Kagera River, because he believed the river made for a more logical border than the one they’d inherited from colonial powers. What he didn’t expect was that Nyerere would mobilize forces not only to counterattack, but to fully capture the Ugandan capital of Kampala and topple the regime. While this was ultimately beneficial to Uganda and to maintaining the border, it was also extremely expensive and contributed to Tanzania’s economic troubles.
Nonetheless, Tanzania was a remarkably peaceful country. Nyerere made Swahili the official language regardless of ethnicity, and there are over 120 of those. Nyerere was the founding chairman of Chama Cha Mapinduzi, or CCM, which translates to the Party of the Revolution, and the party still dominates Tanzania’s political environment today. It’s seen a slew of leaders with very different personalities and objectives since Nyerere died in 1999, but today CCM is led by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, a former project manager for the World Food Programme from Zanzibar, which has never fully settled its place in the union. Initially, she signalled reform in the country, but by 2024 her administration had turned sharply toward authoritarianism, and it escalated further in 2025. She had the chairman of the main opposition party, Chadema, arrested over a speech urging for electoral reform, and ultimately Chadema was barred from participating in the 2025 general election.
Meanwhile, Tanzania’s coastline makes the city of Dar es Salaam the ideal port for the country’s neighbors. Zambia, the DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and Malawi all rely heavily on Tanzania for trade. Other factions see the value here too, including companies in China, the UAE, and Oman, and China in particular has invested heavily into revitalizing Tanzania’s rail infrastructure.
The country also has major oil and gas interests. Western firms like Shell have offshore gas collection projects valued at tens of billions of dollars. Additionally, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline is being built to transit Tanzania and transport crude from Uganda to the port of Tanga. As of April 2026, the pipeline was about 82% complete, and exports are projected to begin in late 2026. Tanzania also has major deposits of nickel, copper, and cobalt that have made it a focal point for the minerals race between the US and China.
These resources and the need to hedge between multiple major powers are a huge contributor to the recent political consolidation under Hassan. Ultimately control of the state means control of the country’s valuable resources and the billions of dollars they produce. Interestingly, Hassan is a Muslim woman from Zanzibar in a largely Christian country centered on the mainland. She is an outsider to most of her people, and she only gained power to begin with because her predecessor died in office.
In October 2025, the most recent general election took place. Hassan won with over 97% of the vote, but only because the main opposition was completely barred from running. Protests erupted on election day, and the state responded with live ammunition, a nationwide curfew, military checkpoints, and a complete internet shutdown. The death toll is contested, but the official commission documented 518 deaths across 11 regions, 197 of which were from gunshot wounds. Hassan defended the security forces responsible, and there has been little to no recourse against her and her administration other than limited international sanctions, in part because many foreign countries have too much at stake financially to take decisive action.
Hassan has somewhat limited domestic support and is desperately trying to hold onto power. But the protests I mentioned were driven by passionate young people in pursuit of democracy and accountability. Tanzania may never be the same again after the violence of 2025, but it is possible that we will see real grassroots action the next time Hassan’s regime attempts to oppress its own people.
Keep reading
- Why does Uganda’s military decide who rules the country?
- Why is Madagascar so unstable?
- Why can’t Ghana afford its own democracy?
I’m writing a book called Groundwork about the buried history beneath geopolitics. Join the waitlist to hear when it has a publisher, a cover, and a release date.