This is the script for my video posted on June 3, 2026. Watch it on TikTok.
In the pre-dawn hours of 3 January 2026, the US launched a military strike on Venezuela, bombing the country’s air defenses and ultimately capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife on narco-terrorism and drug charges. Shortly after, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was publicly sworn in as acting president, and US oil companies began moving in. But what exactly is going on in Venezuela today, and how has the country changed since Maduro was removed from office?
When the UN Secretary-General and countless countries said the raid violated the UN Charter and Venezuelan sovereignty, the US characterized its actions not as a war, but as a law enforcement operation to arrest an indicted fugitive. Immediately after Maduro’s capture, the current US administration declared that it would run Venezuela until a safe, proper, and judicious transition could take place. But the removing Maduro did not dismantle the government. In fact, Delcy Rodriguez is a long-time Maduro loyalist who many associate with the government’s repressive apparatus. She and her brother Jorge, who serves as the president of the National Assembly, lead a highly pragmatic and market-focused political faction of civilians, and they have consolidated power against the military since Maduro’s arrest.
Historically, Delcy Rodriguez has always been a staunch supporter of former president Hugo Chavez’s policies, including state control of strategic sectors like the oil industry. But her stance has changed dramatically. It’s unclear what the dynamic looks like between her and the US government behind the scenes, but the expansion of US firms into the country indicates that she has chosen not to fight the US government and risk being removed from office, much to the displeasure of her rivals in the military.
In the weeks following Maduro’s capture, the US Treasury issued a rapid cascade of general licenses for companies to legally handle Venezuelan crude oil, explore and produce from new sources, and ultimately operate at full capacity. The named companies include firms like BP, Chevron, and Shell, and they are now authorized to deal directly with the PDVSA, the Venezuelan state-owned oil company, though all revenue flows through an account controlled by the US government. In fact, days after the raid, an executive order was issued to create a system where oil proceeds are deemed sovereign property of the Venezuelan government held in custody by the United States. The US has been transferring funds intermittently to pay public sectors employees. In May 2026, amid ongoing disruption of oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, Venezuela’s oil exports rose to roughly 1.25m bpd, most of which is being sold to the US, India, and European countries.
Meanwhile, the mining sector has also picked up operations. In March, the US Secretary of the Interior visited Caracas with over two dozen mining executives. The US has brought back roughly $100m worth of physical gold, and Venezuela has approved a mining law reform to open gold, diamonds, and rare earths to foreign capital. The Interior Secretary explicitly stated that Venezuela’s mineral wealth is relevant to the US’s “AI arms race against China,” though a lot of the country’s mineral-rich areas are controlled by gangs, guerrilla fighters, and corrupt elements of the military.
Some analysts frame what’s going on in Venezuela as a once in a lifetime opportunity for the US to reassert its dominance in the Western Hemisphere against China and Russia, in a reestablishment of the Monroe Doctrine. The US has reestablished diplomatic and consular relations and has even conducted military exercises near the US Embassy in Caracas.
Meanwhile, Venezuela owes China about 10-15b USD, much of which is collateralized by oil. But with the US controlling oil flows, China cannot claim oil for debt repayment. Russia’s former influenced as an arms dealer and strategic partner was completely uprooted as well, and many have contrasted the operation in Venezuela with Russia’s war in Ukraine because the former took a matter of hours to complete upend the established order, while the latter was supposed to be a two-week operation and has been going on for over four years.
Cuba has experienced the greatest collateral damage from all of this because Maduro supplied as much as 50% of the country’s oil needs, and since his capture the US has choked off Cuba’s supply, only allowing limited flows for commercial and humanitarian purposes. On top of that, the US has blocked Mexican shipments too by threatening retaliatory tariffs. This has triggered a serious energy crisis in the country that the US is able to leverage for its own benefit.
All of this has had a substantial impact on Venezuela’s immediate neighbors too. You might recall that Venezuela threatened to seize the Essequibo region of Guyana a couple of years ago for its oil supplies, and though the territorial dispute remains, the dynamics at play mean that any kind of military action would likely require US consent and involvement, and engagement with US oil majors to exploit those resources. Colombia also condemned the US intervention but its president, Gustavo Petro, became the first foreign leader to visit Venezuela after the operation, meeting President Rodriguez and pledging cooperation on border security. Some guerrilla leaders who were sheltering in Venezuela reportedly fled back to Colombia as well, fearing they’d be betrayed by the new Venezuelan regime.
Nearly 8m Venezuelans have fled the country since 2015, and many of these are waiting to see if it’s safe to come back and if the country is able to get out of the economic quagmire that has made it difficulty for most families to afford even a loaf of bread. But the reality is that for the US-driven oil boom to have a meaningful impact on the country’s people, the funds need to flow back into the country’s economy, and not just to a small group of powerful people. The US controls these funds, and ultimately it’s up to the US government whether the people of Venezuela will be able to thrive like they once did.
Keep reading
- Why does Colombia’s geography dictate its dynamics?
- Why has Ecuador become the most dangerous country in Latin America?
- How has Mexico changed under its first woman president?
I’m writing a book called Groundwork about the buried history beneath geopolitics. Join the waitlist to hear when it has a publisher, a cover, and a release date.